Geopolitical Conflict News

[elevenism]

Just think for a sec how cancelling those exercises would look. It would look like Putin's nuclear blackmailing worked! It would encourage him to go even further with it.

NATO cancelled quite a few exercises in the last few months to not provoke Russia.

Oh, and by the way: this war has never been about NATO, despite what Russian propagandists are saying now.

Also, look at the outcome from the latest voting by the UN: only four countries voted in Russia's favor. The vast majority voted against it. That's proof on how this conflict is not some kind of thing between Russia and the West

I can certainly see where your coming from, with the other side of the Steadfast Noon argument. I hear you. And I get it.
But if we were going to cancel ANY operation, idk. Maybe it should have been this one.
Still, I can ride with your position, for sure. But I can't lie to myself about the escalation inherent in such an exercise. And I respect your views, @r_z

But as far as the war NOT being THE most dangerous proxy war between the West and the Russian bloc, in our lifetimes, and it NOT being Russia vs the West?

I just...I don't see it.

I feel like we've discussed this before, but, do you honestly think we're arming/training/providing intelligence to Ukraine out of the goodness of our hearts?

If this isn't a proxy war, idk what is.

Check out the new Jeremy Shapiro piece: we keep testing Russia's "red line" and vice versa.

[allegro]

@elevenism Because we are bound by agreements to be honest about that.

As was said, nobody is expecting to actually USE these weapons. They’re just deterrents.

The “Cuban Missile Crisis” was never a true “threat.”

It was a pissing match, a political “crisis.”

Putin is NOT “insane.”

He’s just very powerful.

“Power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Great men are almost always bad men, even when they exercise influence and not authority; still more when you superadd the tendency of the certainty of corruption by authority.”


Also: “Despotic power is always accompanied by corruption of morality.”

- Lord Acton


Lord Acton was a pretty quotable guy:

https://www.acton.org/research/lord-acton-quote-archive

@elevenism : “ I feel like we've discussed this before, but, do you honestly think we're arming/training/providing intelligence to Ukraine out of the goodness of our hearts?”

NOBODY said this.

Here: https://www.politico.com/amp/news/20...y-aid-00019104

And this: https://www.wsj.com/articles/give-uk...ms-11657032102

These mood swings should not affect U.S. foreign policy. A Ukrainian counteroffensive may fail, but if we withhold what the Ukrainians need to have a chance of succeeding, we will ensure that they fail. And if they fail, there is no reason to believe that Vladimir Putin, who sees himself as a 21st-century Peter the Great, will stop in Ukraine. As Mr. Putin once instructed a group of geography students, “The borders of Russia do not end.”

[elevenism]

@allegro
First off, DON'T start quoting Jesus to ME. I know what he said about absolute power corrupting absolutely, in Second Matthew.
And don't act like I'm not familiar with the gospel of Lord Action, either.

But so, ok. Jokes aside.

A.) Call me cynical, but I don't believe a word the US gvmt says about WEAPONS CAPABILITIES. Like, honestly...you DO?

B.) Regarding Putin's sanity, check out the Jeremy Shapiro piece. It's all about how intelligent, RATIONAL leaders, following protocol, could STILL cause a nuclear war. Nobody has to be insane.
It's from a publication called War on the Rocks
(That being said, Putin sure does do a bunch of odd SHIT like staying 20 feet away from people 99% of the time, but since I'm not a mental health professional...anyway, I digress).
I don't think he's insane. I think he's tired of LOSING the dick measuring contest.

3.) The doctrine of mutually assured destruction MAY be rapidly eroding. I don't feel good and I don't feel like digging for articles, but the UN talking about how SMALL nukes aren't really THAT bad...well, yeah.
We'll see.

also, F.) As far as the thing that "literally nobody said?" It's been said. But that isn't the point
What I MEANT, was that YES, this IS about Russia vs the west.
That's precisely what it's about: the batshit crazy amount of aid, the intelligence, the whole shit.

And I guess, finally:
Nuclear weapons are just there as a deterrent...until someone decides to use one. You know, kind of like WE did in WW2?

99.9% of what I post in this thread is about financial implications. I'm here to look at/present news that has only RECENTLY gone from page 6 to page 1, and try to encourage people to be financially prepared, because there's about a ONE HUNDRED PERCENT chance of a nasty, GLOBAL economic calamity.

It's just that, over the past few weeks, based on certain statements and actions, my fear of a possible nuclear exchange has gone from like 0.0% to 0.1%

It's POSSIBLE. It's certainly not LIKELY, but it's far more likely than it was.even a few months ago...I'd say .01% more likely.

Edit: Here's that article. It's been on my mind. The title is sensational, but the points are valid, imo.
The author is a Director of...something...at the ECFR, and served in the State Department, so I feel like he might know what he's talking about, here.

[cdm]

Nuclear weapons are just there as a deterrent...until someone decides to use one. You know, kind of like WE did in WW2?

That's not exactly how it works. The bombs were dropped on Japan with the intent to end the war. We were the only ones with tested, operable bombs. The weapons themselves aren't the deterrent...the deterrent is the mutually assured destruction.

[allegro]

I wish there was a “hide thread” command in vBulletin.

[elevenism]

That's not exactly how it works. The bombs were dropped on Japan with the intent to end the war. We were the only ones with tested, operable bombs. The weapons themselves aren't the deterrent...the deterrent is the mutually assured destruction.

Yes, I'm aware, naturally.
But, in the almost 70 years since the Enola Gay dropped that Little Boy on 8-6-45, well...
Idk. I always think of Oppenheimer supposedly quoting Lord Krishna speaking to Arjuna: you know, the "now I am become death..." bit?
Times have changed, is what I mean.

I don't think we're headed for nuclear holocaust at ALL, BUT, there IS a plausible scenario that could lead us in that direction.

And when a US president says we're at a high risk of "nuclear armageddon," (edit: and nothing remotely like this has been uttered by a POTUS since the early sixties?) and his rival's camp keeps spouting insanity regarding the "west melting into the concrete" and such, well, that's...that's new.

I STILL maintain my position, though: tactical/low yield nuke MIGHT be used against Ukraine.
US/NATO response (actually NATO is kind of fractured, so, US and a coalition) will respond with conventional weapons: ACTUAL "shock and awe."

AND WHAT IS GUARANTEED is a grim financial outlook for.next year, PERIOD.
The news stories are exciting and interesting, but the MAIN, INEVITABLE thing, is economic.

@allegro if you you wanna ignore the thread, don't you supposed to just, like, not look at it?

[allegro]

In other boards, you could use a command to make threads not even show up in your feed. Lots cleaner that way and none would show up as unread.

Please stop quoting me, so I can actually forget this thread.

[elevenism]

In other boards, you could use a command to make threads not even show up in your feed. Lots cleaner that way and none would show up as unread.

If you're talking about not wanting to see the facts and ideas presented by a certain user...what did they say that was wrong?
I'M mostly just reporting news, in a thread I made like ten years ago, because I saw this shit coming.

And sorry.
You didn't have the "please stop quoting me" before I made this post.
I won't, anymore, in this thread.

[elevenism]

Again, to be clear, I do NOT think we're headed for nuclear holocaust.
We're headed for global financial calamity.

Back to news tonite

- EU says Russian army will be "annihilated" if any nukes are used.

- NK, Belarus, Syria, Nicaragua voted along with Russia WRT Ukrainian sovereignty. (this was mentioned here before; I was just naming the countries)


-14 NATO allies plus Finland signed off on the "European Sky Shield Initiative," an air/missile defense system.

-Russia says if Ukraine joins NATO, it's WW3. (Imho, they're kind of alREADY NATO: just not on paper)

-Whole G7 (US, France, Italia, Germany, Canada, Japan, UK), PLUS the EU if I understand correctly, is in it to win it. They're down to fight against Russia for as long as it takes.

Uggggggh Jesus that's all I can do right now.

bUT, there's a bunch of other more financial shit.






-

[Jinsai]

what I think we don't realize in a general sense, is that this time if there's nuclear war, we are fucked. the world will end, and it will happen quickly

[r_z]

what I think we don't realize in a general sense, is that this time if there's nuclear war, we are fucked. the world will end, and it will happen quickly

This much has been true since the cold war, actually.

[elevenism]

This much has been true since the cold war, actually.

I guess the big question is whether the nukes will be used or not.

I wonder: is there a possibility wherein Russia uses a SMALL nuke, to prove that THIS IS NOT A BLUFF, and is then, decimated by an overwhelming response from CONVENTIONAL weapons?

Do you guys think that's possible, now?
Is that even a possibility at this point?

[Khrz]

Do you guys think that's possible, now?
Is that even a possibility at this point?

Maybe Yes, Maybe No, Maybe Fuck If Anyone Knows.

Don't get me wrong but you gotta root yourself out of that morbid speculation loop. Whatever you think you're doing by obsessively running in circle, you're not doing it. You're not doing anything.
I'm pretty sure everyone directly involved in what's unfolding on the international scene is playing it by ear at this point. The amount of unpredictable variables is staggering, and nobody can predict how close to The Fan The Shit will hit. Neither can some bozo from Texas nor some clown from France, if you catch my drift.

So rationally, we don't have the answer, or even the tiniest clues that would shine any sort of light on what the answer mighta coulda would be.
Intellectually, it's not a fun thought experiment. I don't see how this speculation might be stimulating, apart from some wicked delight for the apocalypse which sure is a very human response to the possibility of impending doom but come on, that's not healthy.

All of this to say : man, I have no idea what you're doing , but I'll be frank and tell you that I don't think it has anything to do with information, preparation, or concern. Jinsai said it best : if Shit hits The Fan, we're fucked. Period. There's nothing to rehash or ruminate at this point, no amount of mental rehearsal is going to make any difference. We're watching giants getting ready for a brawl if things go real south ; the fuck are we going to do about it ?

Grow some flowers, hug your loves, have a walk. The world has always been chaos, don't try to follow and predict its patterns, you're hurting yourself. Keep informed and aware, that's cool, but not like that.

I sincerely hope I'm not coming across as condescending or patronizing ; what I'm saying is coming from a place of concern. I know you're fascinated, by this subject and others, but keep some distance because that stuff will swallow you whole and spit your bones.

[Jinsai]

I think the nukes are gonna fly, and we're all gonna die. So we should prepare for it, like the end of that movie Melanchollia. We gotta hold hands and deal with our impending death because I think it's coming

[elevenism]

...

I don't see how this speculation might be stimulating, apart from some wicked delight for the apocalypse which sure is a very human response to the possibility of impending doom but come on, that's not healthy.

All of this to say : man, I have no idea what you're doing , but I'll be frank and tell you that I don't think it has anything to do with information, preparation, or concern...

As far as stocking food and water for financial calamity? That aspect IS helpful, and is objectively likely to save money. It's ALREADY saving money. I ate something last night, that tasted great, that was previously $1 and is now $2.
I'm a BIT of a prepper, kind of, I guess?
For instance, the heat went out in our side of the house (where my wife and I live) a few years ago.
But we decided to adapt, to harden ourselves, and I feel that we'll be more prepared than others, should the power go out.

But the rest of it?
Damn. You can still.read me.after all.these years.
Yes. I'm bored and depressed, and find it all to be interesting.
I don't remember if I had RA before you left or not.
Even if I did, it's gotten much, much worse since then.
I can barely do ANYTHING, now.
So, yeah. You got me. This news is fascinating.
We.are living through a historical epic.

But I'm not scared, if that's your concern. It's not consuming me.

[elevenism]

I think the nukes are gonna fly, and we're all gonna die. So we should prepare for it, like the end of that movie Melanchollia. We gotta hold hands and deal with our impending death because I think it's coming

I love Melencholia, but, again, I don't think we're all about to die.

If that's the case, though? I think I'd handle it like the older character in that movie.

[Jinsai]

sure, I mean at this point in my life, nuke me.

[versusreality]

America will not be nuked.

[Khrz]

As far as stocking food and water for financial calamity? That aspect IS helpful, and is objectively likely to save money. It's ALREADY saving money. I ate something last night, that tasted great, that was previously $1 and is now $2.
I'm a BIT of a prepper, kind of, I guess?

Yeah I'm not arguing that, even though I'm not on the same page it does sound constructive and probably smart anyway.

I'm going to have a hard time elaborating on my point, and if I tried it probably would go wrong, I'm barely articulate enough in French. But I'm not talking about fear. I'm talking about driving past a car crash, and constantly wondering if we think people died or will die for the rest of the trip. I get it, I'm wondering this myself, but in my opinion you're not doing yourself any good rehashing so obsessively. I apologize if my comment is insensitive, perhaps you can't help it, but this thought saddens me, because I'm pretty convinced you're polluting yourself with toxic, morbid speculations. But it's none of my business really, and maybe also some kind of projection on my part, a reaction from a guy who's trying really hard to not spend his days wondering what next month will look like. Makes sense that watching you repeatedly asking us if we think the nukes will fly provokes a "what the fucking fuck do you think you're doing?!" reaction on my part.

[elevenism]

Yeah I'm not arguing that, even though I'm not on the same page it does sound constructive and probably smart anyway.

I'm going to have a hard time elaborating on my point, and if I tried it probably would go wrong, I'm barely articulate enough in French. But I'm not talking about fear. I'm talking about driving past a car crash, and constantly wondering if we think people died or will die for the rest of the trip. I get it, I'm wondering this myself, but in my opinion you're not doing yourself any good rehashing so obsessively. I apologize if my comment is insensitive, perhaps you can't help it, but this thought saddens me, because I'm pretty convinced you're polluting yourself with toxic, morbid speculations. But it's none of my business really, and maybe also some kind of projection on my part, a reaction from a guy who's trying really hard to not spend his days wondering what next month will look like. Makes sense that watching you repeatedly asking us if we think the nukes will fly provokes a "what the fucking fuck do you think you're doing?!" reaction on my part.

Your English is, actually, far more articulate than that of many people I know, who speak English as a first language.

And I do NOT feel like you're being insensitive, at all.

I get it. I understand.

But, again, I'm not really SCARED. I'm not sitting around, frightened.
I DON'T think ICBM nukes will fly.

I just find all of this to be interesting., and I'm fucking bored.
It honestly doesn't affect my life in a negative way.
What you said about driving past a car crash: in Texas, we call that "Rubbernecking."
But, seriously:: I'm not obsessing over nuclear holocaust.
If you read back through the thread, I'm MOSTLY trying to tell people to prepare for economic issues.

SO good to have you back, @Khrz .

[allegate]

they picked the wrong theme song, it should be yakety sax.

[allegro]

Honestly I think you are exactly right about this being a unique situation in regards to the supply chain. But that is also a problem that, in theory, fixes itself as the economy slowly wakes up from the pandemic. Things will shift, sure, but a pandemic is basically a forced shutdown of the economy. There was no real loss in terms of the means of supply. So in time supply shouldn't be what drives inflation.

Huh …

[burnmotherfucker!]

Huh

Not sure exactly what you're asking. My above post was just my attempt at explaining the logic behind why the FED is raising interest rates until inflation seems to trend down. And the first paragraph of my post was just a quick comment on where you had mentioned supply chain issues driving inflation.

But that is just all academic reasoning there from the old dusty memory from my business degree. I really don't follow this stuff on the daily anymore. Too depressing. But that video you shared is enlightening if true. It's basically saying corporations are jacking up prices because, well, they can.

THIS is why the FED is sweating so hard about inflation in the first place. Markets tend to correct themselves somewhat quickly. EXCEPT prices. Prices are inflexible downwards. That's economics 101. This makes inflation extremely hard to keep in check. Basically companies don't want to lower prices once consumers are used to paying a certain amount, even if markets should dictate so. Basically the only pressure to lower prices comes from competitors. But if ALL the competitors maintain the higher prices then it can take a while for things to stabilize. Basically once Chic-fil-a becomes used to getting $10 for a combo, they're not going back to $5 unless they absolutely have to.

Inflation is a mother fucker.

But those profit increases in that video are alarming, to say the least. Someone who knows more than me is going to have to explain why they're so high right now. Well, other than the obvious reason, greed.

[versusreality]

And as crazy as it sounds, this inflation is nothing compared to the 60's-80's.

[allegro]

But those profit increases in that video are alarming, to say the least. Someone who knows more than me is going to have to explain why they're so high right now. Well, other than the obvious reason, greed.

Her point is that greed is the primary reason for current inflation.

That was confirmed by Mike Konczal, the director of Macroeconomic Analysis at the Roosevelt Institute, testifying before the Congressional committee.

https://www.alternet.org/amp/katie-p...ion-2658470312

Which just (obviously) further refutes all these idiot Republicans claiming they will “fix” inflation (when they’re free-market Capitalists). Unless, of course, the free market is deliberately raising prices to try to get Republicans into office. Because market manipulation has definitely been known to happen, and voters are definitely stupid enough to fall for it.

Also, McCarthy’s carrot on a stick: “Republicans will stop sending arms to Ukraine.”

[Dryalex12]

If there is anything this thread has taught me is that I should never meet the bulk of you guys here IRL. I am pretty sure you'd give me a psychotic break with how much of a black hole of hope and optimism some of you are. Not a healthy place for someone with PTSD like I do.

[Swykk]

I’d love to see this thread closed, myself.

I’m no optimist by any stretch but a lot of the shit in here is just unnecessary and serves no purpose other than fearmongering.

I’ll call my Fox News watching grandma if I need that toxicity in my life.

[allegro]

I’d love to see this thread closed, myself.

I’m no optimist by any stretch but a lot of the shit in here is just unnecessary and serves no purpose other than fearmongering.

I’ll call my Fox News watching grandma if I need that toxicity in my life.

Here, this might help cheer you up:

[Swykk]

I do speak/understand a bit of German (3 years in high school and 1 in college) but as it turns out, it was advertised correctly and I did not need it!

[elevenism]

I’d love to see this thread closed, myself.

I’m no optimist by any stretch but a lot of the shit in here is just unnecessary and serves no purpose other than fearmongering.

I’ll call my Fox News watching grandma if I need that toxicity in my life.

I don't see it as such. I mean, it's the news, and it's news of an incredibly fascinating, unprecedented geopolitical situation, received in real time, on a daily basis.

I'm a news junkie in general, and my wife is obsessed with military history: she was in the military herself for a bit.
As far as fear, none of this scares me personally, and I'M GODDAMN sure not trying to scare anyone else.

I'm WAY more scared of health issues (wife is in hospital currently, my RA), or trump winning in '24 than I am of any of THIS shit.

I wish I hadn't given the thread such a goofy NAME, though (which is nothing more than a reference to one of my favorite drum and bass albums of all time), but that was like ten years ago, and, well...I'm a bit more mature, now.