Geopolitical Conflict News

[Khrz]

@Khrz , jokes aside, I don't know how long this will take, but this is going to be an "east vs west" thing, imho.
And I would assume that, in a military situation, France will stand with US, Canada, Germany, Finland, South Korea, Japan, Australia, Sweden, Philippines, Italy, Poland, UK, etc.

And let go of Chinese metals and production, make a mess of our diplomatic relations and complicate all our common or parallel endeavors ? They'd need to nuke Taiwan before France blinks, and even then...
Just look at all the oh-hum that went on in the first month of the aggression on Ukraine soil. That situation would be even worse. We were only worried about gas when it came to Russia. China is an other problem altogether. Macron has been very clear : France doesn't want to pick a side. Ideologically we can't officially align with the Chinese government obviously, but we're certainly not going to turn our back on them.

We'll let everyone condemn and yell, assure them in private that we agree with them, and never make our position clear, unless the situation turns binary : help China, or resist them.

[elevenism]

And let go of Chinese metals and production, make a mess of our diplomatic relations and complicate all our common or parallel endeavors ? They'd need to nuke Taiwan before France blinks, and even then...
Just look at all the oh-hum that went on in the first month of the aggression on Ukraine soil. That situation would be even worse. We were only worried about gas when it came to Russia. China is an other problem altogether. Macron has been very clear : France doesn't want to pick a side. Ideologically we can't officially align with the Chinese government obviously, but we're certainly not going to turn our back on them.

We'll let everyone condemn and yell, assure them in private that we agree with them, and never make our position clear, unless the situation turns binary : help China, or resist them.

yeah, @Khrz , you called it, awhile ago.
And, i can feel you.
But, i never expected Macron to say some of the shit he said to Xi.
I'd always thought that, in a SHTF (shit hits the fan) situation,
that it'd be US/NATO/EU vs China/Russia and Co.
Yet, France is part of the G7, who recently jointly warned and condemned RUSSIA, and, let's please stop pretending Russia and China aren't joined at the hip (for now, until China decides Russia is no longer useful, and retakes Outer Mongolia, aka where most Russians live).

NOW, Germany apparently can't fulfill it's NATO commitments.
I worry that we may be headed for MULTIPLE EU States to bail on the EvW thing i predicted.

Tunisia and several African countries are ALSO leaning towards China/Russia , and of course, SEVERAL South American countries are leaning that way, too...Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina, etc.

And the US CURRENTLY has troops in Taiwan.

And THEN, there's everything in those leaked documents, which may be real, or double agent stuff, or double double agent stuff...god knows.

What's CUTE is that, you won't hear 99.9% of ANY of this from major US news outlets.

I sure do wish the Overlords would reset the simulation or whatever.

Edit: oh, and god DAMN, if India joins the Sino-Russian alliance, well...China and India would account for about, what, 3 billion people?
The US needs to be courting India at this moment, for REAL.

[botley]

Good analysis of where things stand — TL;DR the European sphere can only roll over to US interests for so long, tying themselves into diplomatic pretzels of incoherent policy. No war ends without negotiations.

[allegate]

Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that a “real war” was being waged against Russia amid muted Victory Day celebrations on Tuesday, with many mass events canceled over security concerns after last week’s drone attack on the Kremlin and a looming Ukrainian counteroffensive.

The event was also marred by an angry outburst from one of the war in Ukraine’s main participants and angriest critics, Yevgeniy Prigozhin of the Wagner Group, who said in a video message that today’s Russians didn’t deserve the World War II victory of their grandfathers being celebrated Tuesday.

[cdm]

Prigozhin has been on a rampage lately...stomping his feet about lack of equipment and support for his Wagner foot soldiers. He threatened to pull his people out until the Kremlin told him they'd give him what he needed. Probably not the last we'll hear from him until he mysteriously falls out of a fifth floor window.

[elevenism]

I think providing Ukraine with F-16s is...well, it's THE biggest escalation, this side of the original invasion.

Both China and Russia's foreign ministries had some PRETTY fucking stern words on the subject...and they weren't aimed at Ukraine.

[elevenism]

Good God. What a crazy fucking couple of weeks.

Ukraine to become a member of NATO.
China attempting to provoke that US pilot into shooting first (imho).
Ukraine "SOMEHOW" defending against Russian onslaught (wouldn't have anything to do with those Patriot Missile systems we gave them...).

Ukraine striking DEEP into Russia, with Russian dissidents and western supplied weapons.
The US switching gears from "that was an AI attack" to "hey, we don't tell them what to do (except we know they HAVE in multiple cases: they kinda accidentally bragged about it on Twitter last year) but we don't tell them what NOT to do, either."

Chinese gvmt telling its people to have a YEAR of food and supplies.
NATO speaking on preparing for DIRECT conflict with Russia, and the impossibility of a diplomatic solution, at this point: aka, Russia MUST "lose."

US Bombers over Bosnia.
US Soldiers in Peru
US, Finland, NORWAY, SWEDEN, doing joint exercises (ongoing, I think).
Biggest US-SK live fire exercises, EVER. (This was the first of 7 iirc)
Continued sabre rattling between Israel and Iran.
Sudan.
Kosovo.

Iran, Argentina, about to be inducted into BRICS alliance (not new, BUT):

Current NATO MEMBER Turkey(!!!), Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Venezuela and 10 or more other Asian, African and LATIN AMERICAN (!) countries formally seeking Brics membership, as of the end of May).

And a bunch of other more shit.

Most telling of all: bits of this are making it onto American cable news...minus certain CONTEXT, of course...I assume, because, 1.we all have access to Reuters, the AP, and international news sources, 2. some of us are bored, fascinated, and paying attention, and, 3. shit is REALLY heating up, they can't COMPLETELY pretend these things aren't happening.

But they're STILL filling us full of Trump Mean to DeSantis, do/don't shop at Target, etc. These are the most important issues, I guess.

They want us arguing over other things that are MAYBE, SLIGHTLY less important than the most powerful countries (and second most powerful) in terms of finance and military might, splitting into two distinct, diametrically opposed camps, the leaders of which are LITERALLY and openly talking about, well, WW3.

I can only assume the gvmt/media wants to prevent a second American Toilet Paper War or whatever. Seriously. They don't want panic buying.

But, DAMN. I'm kind of stunned by the degree of escalation in SO many ways, ALL happening within a couple of weeks.
This is, imho, The Next Part, or Phase Two, or whatever you wanna call it.

[bobbie solo]

i'm no expert, but I don't see this Ukraine/NATO flirting going anywhere. That seems far too dangerous, at least for now.

[elevenism]

i'm no expert, but I don't see this Ukraine/NATO flirting going anywhere. That seems far too dangerous, at least for now.

It does to me, too! But it was on the fucking REGULAR ASS TV NEWS.



Furthermore, from Bloomberg:


@bobbie solo , that's THE DUDE.

I'm wondering...how you say...WHAT THE FUCK IS REALLY GOING ON.

East Coast hip hop adjacent talk...am I doing it, Solo?

Meanwhile? Will YOU be shopping at target?

Man. Once when I was between gfs, I used to borrow clothes from my best homeboy at the time, who happened to be gay. The clothes were Versace, Armani, Gucci...the cat wouldn't be caught DEAD wearing anything from target, or with a rainbow on it. I need to throw that in another thread, if the target thing is being discussed.

[allegate]

[BRoswell]

Surprised no one is talking about this yet:
Russia Updates: Putin Mobilizes Forces Against Prigozhin as Wagner Claims Rostov - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

[GulDukat]

Surprised no one is talking about this yet:
Russia Updates: Putin Mobilizes Forces Against Prigozhin as Wagner Claims Rostov - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

It's all over the news. See how the next 24 hours play out. ETA: They are saying on the news that the Wagner group is standing down.

[allegate]

this is what we generally call a "Jesus fuck" moment.

Ordering the Selected Reserve and Certain Members of the Individual Ready Reserve of the Armed Forces to Active Duty | The White House

By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including sections 121 and 12304 of title 10, United States Code, I hereby determine that it is necessary to augment the active Armed Forces of the United States for the effective conduct of Operation Atlantic Resolve in and around the United States European Command’s area of responsibility. In furtherance of this operation, under the stated authority, I hereby authorize the Secretary of Defense, and the Secretary of Homeland Security with respect to the Coast Guard when it is not operating as a service in the Navy, under their respective jurisdictions, to order to active duty any units, and any individual members not assigned to a unit organized to serve as a unit of the Selected Reserve, or any member in the Individual Ready Reserve mobilization category and designated as essential under regulations prescribed by the Secretary concerned, not to exceed 3,000 total members at any one time, of whom not more than 450 may be members of the Individual Ready Reserve, as they deem necessary, and to terminate the service of those units and members ordered to active duty.

the IRR is the one you're in if you do less than 8 years in service. If you sign up for four, you do four in the IRR. You don't actually "do" anything though, no matter how badly the local reserve units try to abuse you into it.

The thing is...you do nothing for those years. No drills, no training, no physical training. So that's who 450 of the people going to not-war are.

[BRoswell]

I'm trying to figure out what exactly this means. Of course a bunch of people are panicking about it, but I'm trying to cut through the bullshit and just get a straight answer.

[allegate]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Individual_Ready_Reserve

Until the War on Terror, members of the Individual Ready Reserve had not been called up since Operation Desert Shield.[

It used to be pretty rare so reading the wiki was interesting. Though also telling that there were so many activations during Bush, one for Obama (and it was a humanitarian effort), and then Trump did almost 1,000,000.

[elevenism]

Jesus fucking god, i feel like i'm the only person here paying attention.

10k Polish Troops at the border with Belarus. According to Lukashenko,
"if provoked – especially by neighboring NATO countries like Poland, Lithuania and Latvia – Belarus would “immediately respond with everything we have, including nuclear weapons."

And, you know, Russia has deployed 1/3 of one Fuckton of tactical nukes to Belarus.

That's WITHOUT getting into the China/Taiwan thing, wherein China is clearly letting the world know what the plan is, and of course, the other bullshit that could currently fill a book.

At least it's fun to live through history.

[botley]

Jesus fucking god, i feel like i'm the only person here paying attention.

10k Polish Troops at the border with Belarus. According to Lukashenko,
"if provoked – especially by neighboring NATO countries like Poland, Lithuania and Latvia – Belarus would “immediately respond with everything we have, including nuclear weapons."

And, you know, Russia has deployed 1/3 of one Fuckton of tactical nukes to Belarus.

You're not the only one, however difficult it is to find reliable information and smart analysis.

Watch this:

[allegate]

BREAKING: Wagner mercenary group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin was on the list of passengers on a plane that crashed north of Moscow, according to state media. Russian Ministry of Emergency Services: The plane was flying from Moscow to St. Petersburg. All 10 on board were killed.

huh, and they say it sounds like it was shot down. double huh.

and potentially the entire Wagner leadership was on board.

[Wretchedest]

What did that guy think was going to happen? He openly defied Putin with a rebellion? Motherfucker should have never surrendered.

[elevenism]

What did that guy think was going to happen? He openly defied Putin with a rebellion? Motherfucker should have never surrendered.

Well, the Wagner Group previously stated that if anything happened to Prigozhen, that the group would flip to the Ukrainian side.
Russia (allegedly, like they allegedly killed that cat) took out the Wagner building, and their radio tower.
Wagner Group is PISSED, and they're fucking MURDEROUS.
10 to 1 they're currently in contact with the Pentagon, now...they PROBABLY already WERE. I'm not sure, obviously.
Meanwhile, we're sending 100 Apache Attack Helicopters to Poland, if I understand correctly.

As I always say, as the "crazy doom and gloom cat," get rice and pasta and canned food.
The fucking world is INSANE, and it's not getting better anytime soon.

I don't imagine Global Thermodynamic Nuclear Warfare (lol, what movie was that), but I REALLY think we're looking at a long ass east vs west thing that WILL change our lives for years. I mean, fuck. It already is.

[elevenism]

@fillow the US is calling for all US citizens to leave Belarus. How do these things look from your end?

Do you plan to get out?

[fillow]

@fillow the US is calling for all US citizens to leave Belarus. How do these things look from your end?

Do you plan to get out?

I got out last year, dude. Just not changing my location because that's still my home and I'll be back hopefully sooner rather than later.

As for what's happening, I think it's just a precaution from US side. Nothing's really happening except for wagner mercenaries started packing their shit and moving out from here (don't know where yet). Like I said many times before, Belarus would not dare initiate any real attack on somebody. Lukashenko's all just talk, and always has been. (Yes, that includes nukes that may or may not actually been moved from Russia).

[Wretchedest]

Well, the Wagner Group previously stated that if anything happened to Prigozhen, that the group would flip to the Ukrainian side.
Russia (allegedly, like they allegedly killed that cat) took out the Wagner building, and their radio tower.
Wagner Group is PISSED, and they're fucking MURDEROUS.
10 to 1 they're currently in contact with the Pentagon, now...they PROBABLY already WERE. I'm not sure, obviously.
Meanwhile, we're sending 100 Apache Attack Helicopters to Poland, if I understand correctly.

As I always say, as the "crazy doom and gloom cat," get rice and pasta and canned food.
The fucking world is INSANE, and it's not getting better anytime soon.

I don't imagine Global Thermodynamic Nuclear Warfare (lol, what movie was that), but I REALLY think we're looking at a long ass east vs west thing that WILL change our lives for years. I mean, fuck. It already is.

War Games

[Sebek]

Is everyone here on vacation or just burned out from the news? I keep expecting to see mention of what's going on in Israel / Gaza but nothing. Pretty horrifying stuff, especially the scope and surprise suddenness of it all, and I wonder how those events are going to shape U.S. geopolitics going forward both in that region and in focus on Russia / Ukraine.

[Wretchedest]

Is everyone here on vacation or just burned out from the news? I keep expecting to see mention of what's going on in Israel / Gaza but nothing. Pretty horrifying stuff, especially the scope and surprise suddenness of it all, and I wonder how those events are going to shape U.S. geopolitics going forward both in that region and in focus on Russia / Ukraine.

I'm glad someone else has taken up my strategy of waiting for someone else to bring things up before talking about them here. Although, when it comes to Israel and Palestine, this may actually be the most popular approach and also actually current policy approach.

[stankeybearlover]

I wonder how those events are going to shape U.S. geopolitics going forward both in that region and in focus on Russia / Ukraine.

With regards to both Ukraine and Syria, it's going to be interesting to see how Russia and Turkey are going to employ these new developments in the Palestine/Israel conflict to benefit their respective geopolitical plays.

I could for instance imagine Turkey using their influence over both the Ukraine war and the Palestine forever war to pressure western powers to relinquish support for Rojava.

[allegate]

Donald Trump's Israel Intel Leak Under Scrutiny After Hamas Attack

I saw something over the weekend about how there are possibly American hostages and the general feel was, "They're about to find out why American has so many poor people" which is funny but not really in a ha-ha way. :/

[Jinsai]

I saw something over the weekend about how there are possibly American hostages and the general feel was, "They're about to find out why American has so many poor people" which is funny but not really in a ha-ha way. :/

A lot of hostages were apparently taken at the Nova Psytrance Festival.

If I were in the region, I would have gone to that party. I like Astral Projection and they were on the lineup.
I saw some footage of the paragliders descending into the party... it's horrifying. I can't fathom the sheer terror, fleeing cars being gunned down, people being grouped together and butchered/lynched. Rockets and explosives.

This is the most peaceful kind of gathering. This is yoga and peace and hippie stuff.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...are&utm_term=4

[sweeterthan]

Is everyone here on vacation or just burned out from the news? I keep expecting to see mention of what's going on in Israel / Gaza but nothing. Pretty horrifying stuff, especially the scope and surprise suddenness of it all, and I wonder how those events are going to shape U.S. geopolitics going forward both in that region and in focus on Russia / Ukraine.

i definitely do not have the bandwidth for the topic right now. mass rape in 2023 is dystopian as fuck.

[botley]

Yeah, this is a shocking, horrific escalation and it really feels like maybe war crimes are just accepted as normal now. Like, almost nobody commented on it when a former Israeli Prime Minister who violated the Geneva Convention during his tenure visited Canada this year. He should have been arrested, turned away at the border, SOMETHING. But no, tacit support for the utterly inhumane situation from the international community. Hamas blows up, kidnaps, rapes, and beheads civilians in response, and it's just like being a frog in boiling water at this point.