11/08/2022, The Midterms, aka build on 2020 aka The Election Thread

[ryanmcfly]

Can't wait till this fucking primary is over.

Shit, I can't wait for it to be middle of november already.

[Wretchedest]

How about when she apologized to Cherokee nation and made reparations for the advantage she realized she had by claiming that as her ethnicity? That is so long ago that it doesn't matter much anymore in the grand scheme of things but she did everything she could to make it right.

If Warren wants to stay in past Super Tuesday based on whatever amount of delegates she can gain through 15% viability, then that is her choice since she raised a shit ton of money last month post-Nevada debate. If the money is still there and everyone around her is telling her to continue, then she should. I think her long-term play is to take as many delegates as she can into the convention and hold onto them if it's brokered. She is polling strongly in several of the Super Tuesday states and if that translates into a sizable haul, then she should stay the course. If she gets clobbered today, then she'll need to reassess and decide if it's time for this to become a two-person race. I think it's likely that she endorses Bernie in that scenario then.

The narrative has shifted three times over four states and people are delusional if they don't think it won't shift again. Pete won Iowa by the slimmest of margins and emerged as the moderate Dem. Then Bernie won NH by a close margin. Then Bernie won Nevada and it seemed like it was going to be a runaway train. Then Biden CLOBBERED South Carolina and closed Bernie's delegate lead to SIX and thus forcing not only Amy and Pete to drop out, but to endorse him as the new moderate Dem. Established Dems and moderates who relied on Biden to win house races in 2018 then started endorsing as well, including a weird endorsement from Beto.

No one knows what the fuck is going to happen tonight and anyone who says that they do and is ready to set fire to all of the other candidates is full of shit.

And @Wretchedest - here's a major point that you need to keep in mind if you want Bernie to win - you need me on your side. I'm still voting for Warren in Ohio in two weeks but you don't just need me and the other Warren supporters to vote for Bernie in November - you need Biden's supporters, Amy's supporters, Pete's supporters, Yang's supporters and anyone else who's out there if we want to beat Trump in November, so taking this opportunity (and no, you're not the only one doing this, obviously) to dunk on these other candidates and put that negative shit out there onto social media does NOTHING to help your candidate. So let's maybe cool it for right now.

Warren was my candidate. I'm not a Bernie bro. Fuck, look at my posts in this thread, you can see how much the Bernie Bros pissed me off.

In reference to the DNA test, i do think it's poor gamesense to take donald trump at a challenge in any way. It was embarrassing for everyone when she did it.

What she is doing is selfish. Do you care about medicare for all? A vote for Warren, right now, from a mathing standpoint is a vote *against* medicare for all, nationalized healthcare. This notion of voting for Warren on brand or tribalism... She's lost. And a vote for her is a vote for Biden, that's where we are at. Its frustrating and i would rather have had it much differently. But here we are. I don't hold it against you, I'll vote for whoever the fuck is running against trump in november, even Bloomberg.

From a polling standpoint, the narrative hasn't shifted much until this last weekend, when it shifted ever so slightly. The polls have been quite accurate this season.

[allegro]

Do you care about medicare for all

Do the math? Okay, let's do math.

How do we get Medicare for All? Or ANY healthcare legislation? How is the ONLY way to get it?

Congress.

And right now, the Dems have control of the House and the Republicans have control of the Senate.

All seats in the House are up for grabs in November.

35 seats are up for grabs in the Senate. And most of those Senate seats are in Red states that don't have ANY hope of going Democrat, let alone totally progressive.

Now, let's go back to 2007: Obama was running. His platform was Universal Healthcare. He wanted a public option, a "Medicare Option."

This was based on the Kennedy/Dingell Medicare for All plan. (Read the bottom for a critique about the lack of a risk pool.)

If there is ever a time to solve our national crisis, it is now. I believe that the best plan for the nation is to build on a program that all Americans know and respect by creating Medicare for All. Medicare administrative costs are low. Patient satisfaction is high. Patients can choose their doctors and hospitals. And all Americans will be free from the fear of medical expenses and able to seek the best possible care when illness strikes.

Today, House Committee on Energy and Commerce Chairman John Dingell (D-Mich.) and I are introducing legislation to extend Medicare to all Americans, from birth to the end of life. In addition, our plan will reduce costs and improve quality, including more effective use of health information technology. It also puts a new emphasis on preventive care, because preventing illness before it occurs is always better and less expensive than treating patients after they become ill.

Our proposal will be entirely voluntary. Americans who wish to stay in their current employer-sponsored plans can do so, and employers can tailor their health plans to provide additional services to their employees that wrap around Medicare coverage. Those who prefer private insurance can choose any of the plans offered to members of Congress and the president.

Sounded great. The Democrats took control of the House and Senate in 2008, and Obama won.

So, it was up to Congress to write the legislation that would bring us the Kennedy / Dingell Medicare for All plan. Slam-dunk! The Democrats had Congress AND a President!

What did we get?

A watered-down piece of shit that is the Affordable Care Act. Which is STILL better than what we HAD, but it wasn't the hopey-changey stuff that people were promised. And, it's still a piece of shit.

And, because Congresspeople don't know shit about healthcare or insurance on a granular level, you know who they went to for help in writing that legislation? Lobbyists. And there was no way that hospital lobbyists and insurance lobbyists were gonna let Kennedy's and Dingell's Medicare for All pass as it stood, nope. Because a multi-million-dollar industry was at stake, and most of Congress has stocks in that shit.

And, that would be exactly what happens with M4A. You wish for something great, and you get something that's a "step toward it, sometime in the future." Because that's the shit that Congress does.

And, then what happened?

The Tea Party backlash.

In 2010. They spun the ACA like it was some kind of crazy Marxist Nightmare (tm), and they TOOK OVER all over Congress in 2010, and obstructed every.single.thing that Obama tried to do from 2010-2016. And have been trying to get rid of the ACA ever since. So, "progress" toward the left led to a giant backlash toward the right. Because that's how things work around here. Because the right wing is full of assholes who believe that we should have a bunch of military and other shit but nobody should actually pay for any of it. And if we want to tax the corporations or the rich, they have the middle class convinced that they'll all be punished because they all "NEED those rich people!" and if you don't treat the corporations nice, they'll pick up and move away, boo hoo and nobody can buy lots and lots of big screen TVs and iPhones.

Here's a reality, though, based on math like risk and insurance information:

Private healthcare insurance isn't some giant boom that's bringing in money in spades; it's actually failing in slow-motion.

We ARE going to end up with one of the European national health models, maybe more like the German model with a risk pool, sooner than later.

I like to shoot the shit with my insurance agents. They've been telling me this for a while, that sooner than later the health care coverage that we know now will NOT exist.

See this: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/15/o...insurance.html

[Wretchedest]

I understand the importance of congress, but I also understand the importance of a candidate who really wants to see things through. I think we lost a lot through obama's self conscious choices to try to bridge partisan divides.

Is what you wrote a defense of Biden? Or what? I get that m4a is a pipe dream, for sure. But warren is, too

[Deacon Blackfire]

If Warren wants to stay in past Super Tuesday based on whatever amount of delegates she can gain through 15% viability, then that is her choice since she raised a shit ton of money last month post-Nevada debate. If the money is still there and everyone around her is telling her to continue, then she should. I think her long-term play is to take as many delegates as she can into the convention and hold onto them if it's brokered. She is polling strongly in several of the Super Tuesday states and if that translates into a sizable haul, then she should stay the course. If she gets clobbered today, then she'll need to reassess and decide if it's time for this to become a two-person race. I think it's likely that she endorses Bernie in that scenario then.

Honestly I think what's so frustrating about this situation for Sanders supporters like myself is our sense that, if their places were reversed, basically no one would be assessing Sanders' campaign this generously except die hard Bernie dead-enders. People were saying he should drop out before the races even began. If he came in 3rd in Iowa, the media would have declared his campaign dead-on-arrival, and at this point there would be a sea of voices accusing him of being an egotistical old man whose irresponsible self-interest was risking the only viable progressive losing to Joe Biden, and I wouldn't even be able to say they were wrong.

She needs a Herculean comeback today to seem at all viable - the last time she won any delegates was Iowa. If she gets one, it has potential to help Biden's campaign more than hers. If she doesn't, it's decision time. We'll see. I guess it's just discouraging to someone like me, who considered Warren a 2nd choice to back if Sanders' campaign floundered like hers is now, that as Buttigieg (who outperformed Warren in every contest thus far) drops out to back Biden and bolster the strength of the party-line Dems against Sanders, Warren's campaign is intimating its strategy rests on meeting the 15% delegate threshold and intends to stay in well past Super Tuesday. What she does with what she gets today will speak volumes about her campaign.

[allegro]

the importance of a candidate who really wants to see things through.

You honestly didn't think that Obama didn't want to "see things through?" Or KENNEDY? Who was dying of brain cancer? It was his bill! He wanted to see it through ... before he died.

He was fucked.

What I wrote is based on the fact that EVERY SINGLE DEMOCRAT wants a better fucking healthcare system than what we have, now. But, I think that older voters are skeptical and know reality vs. bullshit. We want "obtainable" vs. "yeah, right."

If we couldn't even manage to get a Medicare OPTION, and the GOP is still SUING over the ACA (it's going to the SCOTUS, yet AGAIN, in a few months, over the Individual mandate; if the SCOTUS removes the Individual mandate, the entire ACA will fall apart; we're talking about a law that's been in effect for TEN YEARS), how do we think we're going to get 60 votes on something in the Senate?

What's more likely to happen is that the Medicare OPTION will cause the private insurance industry and the hospital monopoly industry to totally implode on its own.

[Wretchedest]

You honestly didn't think that Obama didn't want to "see things through?" Or KENNEDY? Who was dying of brain cancer? It was his bill! He wanted to see it through ... before he died.

He was fucked.

What I wrote is based on the fact that EVERY SINGLE DEMOCRAT wants a better fucking healthcare system than what we have, now. But, I think that older voters are skeptical and know reality vs. bullshit. We want "obtainable" vs. "yeah, right."

If we couldn't even manage to get a Medicare OPTION, and the GOP is still SUING over the ACA (it's going to the SCOTUS, yet AGAIN, in a few months, over the Individual mandate; if the SCOTUS removes the Individual mandate, the entire ACA will fall apart; we're talking about a law that's been in effect for TEN YEARS), how do we think we're going to get 60 votes on something in the Senate?

What's more likely to happen is that the Medicare OPTION will cause the private insurance industry and the hospital monopoly industry to totally implode on its own.

I'm not sure there's really a point of contention here. I think obama, for instance could have gone public with the Trump campaign investigation while the election was happening... I'd like a candidate that might do that....

My chief concern today is that a lot of people are going to feel burned by warren who is making a nonsensical play for the presidency through a stupid loophole.

[allegro]

I'm not sure there's really a point of contention here. I think obama, for instance could have gone public with the Trump campaign investigation while the election was happening... I'd like a candidate that might do that....

There was a justifiable explanation for that stuff. James Comey and Bill Clinton didn't help her at all. But, it's all water under the bridge, has nothing to do with why we didn't get M4A in 2008.

Rahm Emanuel supposedly tried talking Obama OUT of making healthcare his main priority, said it was a third rail, he tried talking Obama into making immigration Obama's main priority. Obama didn't listen, we got the ACA, then the Dems lost Congress for 6 years and the Senate for 10 years.

Ya rolls the dice.


We have had TWO primaries and two caucuses, so far. It's EARLY.

[versusreality]

Joe Biden is ready for Super Thursday. "you know the thing" . yikes. (I understand he has a speech impediment but I don't think either of these slip ups are related to that.) .

[Mantra]

Just got back from voting and it was kind of a weird experience. My precinct held the primary at a Lutheran church (because this is Minnesota, I guess?), and the voting room was right next door to the main church auditorium, where they had this big ass stage with a huge organ. And there was this enormously tall man who looked to be in his 80s at the youngest, and he was up there playing the most intense, gothic, melodramatic organ music you've ever heard. So we all stood at our voting booths with this really loud horror music blaring away on the massive organ next door. It was pretty surreal.

Also, I was kinda confused by one of the options on my ballot, which just said "Uncommitted."





lol... Is there a story behind that? I don't get it. Why the fuck would someone show up just to vote "Uncommitted."

[versusreality]

^ sounds like you're on the film set of a Phantasm movie! booyyyyyyyyyyyy!

[Sarah K]

@Mantra If "uncommitted" gets enough votes to get delegates, then those delegates are not bound to a candidate at the convention... I think. @allegro can probably clarify and/or correct.

[allegro]

@Mantra If "uncommitted" gets enough votes to get delegates, then those delegates are not bound to a candidate at the convention... I think. @allegro can probably clarify and/or correct.

Shit, I dunno, actually, I’ve never heard of that on a ballot? Maybe they have it there as an option to be sure that people actually don’t FORGET to check the President section? So, it’s denoting a DELIBERATE lack of choice vs. a possible whoopsie?

We have paper ballots here in my county and if there’s an area where we don’t want to vote, we just skip it. But then there’s the possibility, from an analytical standpoint, that we didn’t deliberately skip it and just didn’t SEE it. Providing a “noncommitted” option helps negotiate that?

Being provided with entertainment while waiting to vote, wow, that’s really something, heh.

[Mantra]

Also I'm kinda bummed out, cuz I took a selfie with my "I Voted" sticker and posted it on my snap story, and so far I got like seven comments from my friends that are like "what, voted? Is there an election today?" And I'm just like, maaaaaannnn, this country is so fucked, lol

[Aladdinsanity]

Re: Warren's DNA test and the flood of toxicity that exists in indigenous discourse because of it -- it's the Cherokee nation that gets the final say on whether or not she's rectified that matter to their satisfaction and many indigenous peoples feel that she simply hasn't. Honestly, I don't know what a "correct" apology would look like or entail. She was wrong and will have to just live with that.

[Aladdinsanity]

So, uh... can the presidential debates be skipped or canceled? The DNC should probably seriously consider that option if Biden wins the nomination.

[ltrandazzo]

So, uh... can the presidential debates be skipped or canceled? The DNC should probably seriously consider that option if Biden wins the nomination.

It’s still cute that people think we’re going to have presidential debates this fall.

[Deacon Blackfire]

On a lighter and more frivolous note, we know who at least one of the Reznors is voting for.

[Wretchedest]

On warren:

If her goal is to win, this is a dumb play

If her goal is to push her agenda through, this is a dumb play

If her goal is party unity, this is a dumb play.

[Mantra]

Bloomberg winning American Samoa is pretty random

[Deacon Blackfire]

Good lord. It seems Warren is primed to be placing third in her home state of Massachusetts. With what are looking to be very close margins between Biden and Sanders there, Maine, and Minnesota, it's looking a lot like her presence has benefited Biden more than anyone else, as I feared. If she wants a progressive and not Joe Biden it's well past time to drop out and endorse Sanders.

[Sarah K]

That's one I'd like to see analyzed more in depth! So bizarre.

This is some wild data, though:

Actually (said in snarky voice), American Samoa is a very efficient win for Bloomberg. It’s worth 6 delegates and only about 350 people voted. To put that into perspective, New Hampshire is worth 24 delegates and nearly 300,000 people voted.

[allegro]

Bloomberg winning American Samoa is pretty random

Tulsi couldn’t even win her own friggin’ territory!!

[allegro]

[Sarah K]

We all learn tackle football while growing up in Nebraska.

[Wretchedest]

Reading from Sanders page tonight:
Her people are doing to Sanders exactly what Sanders people did to Hilary

[allegro]

[Swykk]

I’m checking out the returns that have come in and I think we are at that time where Warren needs to decide if she wants to endorse a progressive friend or an establishment guy. I don’t know why she didn’t get traction especially over people like Buttigieg but it just didn’t happen. She narrowly has more delegates than Bloomberg.

If she endorses Sanders and he wins, she is surely and rumored already to get a sweet cabinet/possibly dual VP role. This is her best move and the country’s best chance at defeating Trump.

Yes, I’m aware not all results are in and I’m not awesome at math but even I can see she isn’t going to win a single state. While I brace for impact, be sure to comb through this thread and you’ll see I’ve had Warren and Sanders as my 1a and 1b since the word go.

If we really want a progressive nominee, now is the time.

[allegate]

who the fuck protests milk?

[Sarah K]

Warren dropping out would not help bring in Black voters. I think instead of obsessing over her that camp should strategize about how to do that. Because that’s who any candidate needs to appeal to - that’s the base.

This is all of course really informal but I’ve been keeping an eye on discussions re: Black voters preferring Biden and the major recurring themes seem to be:

Name recognition
Trust (this one surprised me!) and distrust of the other options
A return to Obama-era policies & normalcy
He will improve what they started with ACA
Relatable